Построение трендовой функции ряда. Оценка качества эконометрической модели

w

t

wt с волной

Ut

Wt=wср+d*(t-tср)+ut

∆Ut

167,80000

1

91,07943282

76,72057

167,8

78,57431

187,70000

2

109,1256866

78,57431

187,7

-58,44625

147,30000

3

127,1719403

20,12806

147,3

104,25375

269,60000

4

145,2181941

124,38181

269,6

-118,94625

168,70000

5

163,2644478

5,43555

168,7

-20,94625

165,80000

6

181,3107015

-15,51070

165,8

32,25375

216,10000

7

199,3569553

16,74304

216,1

140,85375

375,00000

8

217,403209

157,59679

375

-105,04625

288,00000

9

235,4494628

52,55054

288

-30,04625

276,00000

10

253,4957165

22,50428

276

-44,04625

250,00000

11

271,5419703

-21,54197

250

184,95375

453,00000

12

289,588224

163,41178

453

-382,25125

88,79500

13

307,6344778

-218,83948

88,795

209,55875

316,40000

14

325,6807315

-9,28073

316,4

228,14875

562,59500

15

343,7269853

218,86801

562,595

-470,53525

110,10600

16

361,773239

-251,66724

110,106

402,28875

530,44100

17

379,8194927

150,62151

530,441

-33,42425

515,06300

18

397,8657465

117,19725

515,063

-235,81325

297,29600

19

415,9120002

-118,61600

297,296

54,59275

369,93500

20

433,958254

-64,02325

369,935

-65,86925

322,11200

21

452,0045077

-129,89251

322,112

275,93775

616,09600

22

470,0507615

146,04524

616,096

184,27575

818,41800

23

488,0970152

330,32098

818,418

-583,09425

253,37000

24

506,143269

-252,77327

253,37

-201,07025

70,34600

25

524,1895227

-453,84352

70,346

625,74475

714,13700

26

542,2357765

171,90122

714,137

-76,44225

655,74100

27

560,2820302

95,45897

655,741

81,98175

755,76900

28

578,3282839

177,44072

755,769

-498,93425

274,88100

29

596,3745377

-321,49354

274,881

175,88575

468,81300

30

614,4207914

-145,60779

468,813

55,24575

542,10500

31

632,4670452

-90,36205

542,105

-160,05125

400,10000

32

650,5132989

-250,41330

400,1

211,30175

629,44800

33

668,5595527

-39,11155

629,448

44,19675

691,69100

34

686,6058064

5,08519

691,691

-336,85825

372,87900

35

704,6520602

-331,77306

372,879

665,42475

1056,35000

36

722,6983139

333,65169

1056,35

-964,22625

110,17000

37

740,7445676

-630,57457

110,17

201,74375

329,96000

38

758,7908214

-428,83082

329,96

614,86375

962,87000

39

776,8370751

186,03292

962,87

-73,75625

907,16000

40

794,8833289

112,27667

907,16

-76,46625

848,74000

41

812,9295826

35,81042

848,74

-237,18625

629,60000

42

830,9758364

-201,37584

629,6

663,45375

1311,10000

43

849,0220901

462,07791

1311,1

-369,04625

960,10000

44

867,0683439

93,03166

960,1

-490,28625

487,86000

45

885,1145976

-397,25460

487,86

250,76475

756,67100

46

903,1608514

-146,48985

756,671

-32,11325

742,60400

47

921,2071051

-178,60311

742,604

1522,61475

2283,26500

48

939,2533588

1344,01164

2283,265

-1344,01164